If Poland Fails it Might Bring the West Down With It

From the Financial Times blog:

It’s getting bleaker by the minute in Eastern Europe. In case you didn’t catch the latest from the Telegraph’s Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, he warned at the weekend how a growing crisis in Eastern Europe could cause nothing less than a total collapse in the West, or as he put it:  “If one spark jumps across the euro zone line, we will have global systemic crisis within days.”

To make his point Evans-Pritchard quotes Morgan Stanley’s Stephen Jen on the fact that Eastern Europe has borrowed a total of $1,7oobn abroad. Furthermore about $400bn of that debt has to be rolled over this year – a number equivalent to about a third of the region’s GDP.

As we outlined a couple of weeks ago, the concern is now greatest not for the retail mortgage sector, which practiced the issuance of foreign-currency based mortgages on a grand scale, but for corporates — which it appears practiced the art of  derivative forex exposure on an even grander scale.

There was a lot of scary stuff out there this weekend.  Poland, Japan, Bank Failures and the complete meltdown of the Euro.  Might be an ugly week in the market with it testing the November lows.  If those lows don’t hold, we may be in for another 20% drop in the markets.

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One response to “If Poland Fails it Might Bring the West Down With It

  • Jacek

    News like the this are the _sources_ of crisis! Here life goes on like every other day. Nothing really changed. That media hysteria is scary!! Foreign investors read this (false) horror stories and all goes mad!

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