So says James Pethokoukis:

Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg, formerly of Merrill Lynch, thinks the unemployment rate is going to at least 12 percent, maybe even 13 percent. Optimists, Rosenberg explains, underestimate the incredible damage done to the labor market during this downturn. And even before this downturn, the economy was not generating jobs in huge numbers. If he is right, all political bets are off. I think the Democrats could lose the House and effective control of the Senate.  I think you would also be talking about  the rise of third party and perhaps a challenger to Obama in 2012.

So here is what I gleaned from Rosenberg’s latest report (bold is mine):

1. For the first time in at least six decades, private sector employment is negative on a 10-year basis (first turned negative in August). Hence, the changes are not merely cyclical or short-term in nature. Many of the jobs created between the 2001 and 2008 recessions were related either directly or indirectly to the parabolic extension of credit.

2. During this two-year recession, employment has declined a record 8 million. Even in percent terms, this is a record in the post-WWII experience.

3. Looking at the split, there were 11 million full-time jobs lost (usually we see three million in a garden-variety recession), of which three million were shifted into part-time work.

4.There are now a record 9.3 million Americans working part-time because they have no choice. In past recessions, that number rarely got much above six million.

5. The workweek was sliced this cycle from 33.8 hours to a record low 33.0 hours — the labour input equivalent is another 2.4 million jobs lost. So when you count in hours, it’s as if we lost over 10 million jobs this cycle. Remarkable.

6. The number of permanent job losses this cycle (unemployed but not for temporary purposes) increased by a record 6.2 million. In fact, well over half of the total unemployment pool of 15.7 million was generated just in this past recession alone. A record 5.6 million people have been unemployed for at least six months (this number rarely gets above two million in a normal downturn) which is nearly a 36% share of the jobless ranks (again, this rarely gets above 20%). Both the median (18.7 weeks) and average (26.9 weeks) duration of unemployment have risen to all-time highs.

7. The longer it takes for these folks to find employment (and now they can go on the government benefit list for up to two years) the more difficult it is going to be to retrain them in the future when labour demand does begin to pick up.

8. Not only that, but we have a youth unemployment rate now approaching a record 20%. Again, this is going to prove to be very problematic for employers in the future who are going to be looking for skills and experience when the boomers finally do begin to retire.

9. The gap between the U6 and the official U3 rate is at a record 7.3 percentage points. Normally this spread is between 3-4 percentage points and ultimately we will see a reversion to the mean, to some unhappy middle where the U6 may be closer to 15.0-16.0% and the posted jobless rate closer to 12%. This will undoubtedly be a major political issue, especially in the context of a mid-term elections and the GOP starting to gain some electoral ground.

10. But when we do start to see the economic clouds part in a more decisive fashion, what are employers likely to do first? Well, naturally they will begin to boost the workweek and just getting back to pre-recession levels would be the same as hiring more than two million people. Then there are the record number of people who got furloughed into part-time work and again, they total over nine million, and these folks are not counted as unemployed even if they are working considerably fewer days than they were before the credit crunch began.

11. So the business sector has a vast pool of resources to draw from before they start tapping into the ranks of the unemployed or the typical 100,000-125,000 new entrants into the labour force when the economy turns the corner. Hence the unemployment rate is going to very likely be making new highs long after the recession is over — perhaps even years.

12. After all, the recession ended in November 2001 with an unemployment rate at 5.5% and yet the unemployment rate did not peak until June 2003, at 6.3%. The recession ended in March 1991 when the jobless rate was 6.8% and it did not peak until June 1992, at 7.8%. In both cases, the unemployment rate peaked well more than a year after the recession technically ended. The 2001 cycle was a tech capital stock deflation; the 1991 cycle was the Savings & Loan debacle; this past cycle was an asset deflation and credit collapse of epic proportions. And economists think that the unemployment rate is in the process of cresting now? Just remember it is the same consensus community that predicted at the beginning of 2008 that the jobless rate would peak out below 6% this cycle.

I could go on and on about this, but I have a bunch of deadlines looming.  Thanks to Big Bob for sending this along:

KELLER, Texas – Christmas by any other name is just not the same.

At least that’s what the mother of a Chisholm Trail Intermediate School sixth grader thinks. She managed to put some of the spirit of Christmas back into her son’s holiday choir program.

Carissa Johnson said her son Steven has been working all year on his choir program. He’ll sing a solo in the song “I’ll Be Home for Christmas.”

“When my dad was a kid he actually sang the same solo as me and I though it would be really cool if I could sing that,” Steven said.

But the whole thing hit a sour note for the 11-year-old when his school told him the word winter would replace Christmas in the song.

The Keller Independent School District said it walks a fine line on religious issues and has to be careful not to push any religious belief over another.

“There’s still the issue that their policy identifies Christmas in the grouping of winter religious and customary holidays,” Johnson said.

In a statement the district lists several holidays including Halloween and Thanksgiving, but instead uses the term “winter religious / customary celebrations” in place of Christmas.

The statement also says “instruction involving holidays should remain neutral in nature without direct evidence of religious preference.”

Eventually the Keller ISD stepped in to take the chill off and told Steven’s mom his school misinterpreted the districts regulations. Christmas is back in the lyrics.

“They agreed to put it back in on the basis of copyright laws,” Johnson said. “She also advised me that they were probably gonna remove some other songs to keep it culturally balanced and probably have to add some other songs.”

The district said it must remain sensitive to everyone in its very diverse population.

There is a video at the link.

A Whiteboard Video

Black Five sums it up best:

Anyone who doubts all veteran’s are heroes need read no further. But for the vast majority of you who do, I’d like to take a little different slant in my tribute than you might read elsewhere. Most of the time when you read tributes to vets, they’re filled with the stories of those who’ve suffered in combat and we see pictures showing the battle-weary combat vets which pointedly make the argument about the sacrifices our veterans have made and continue to make.

But not all sacrifices are made on the field of battle. While infantry, armor and artillery are the combat arms – the tip of the spear – they, better than anyone, know how important the team that makes up the rest of the spear are to their success on the battlefield.

Those F-16s don’t show up on target at the right time unless that kid flying the boom of a KC10 tanker at 30,000 feet at 2am doesn’t do his job. That sabot round from an M1A1 fired at a threatening T72 isn’t there unless the truck driver hauling ammo day in and day out gets that ammo where it needs to be when it needs to be there.

Veterans are the guys like the cook who gets up every morning at 3:30 am and begins to prepare breakfast for his guys and gals. The young man below deck on an aircraft carrier who makes sure the F/A 18 he’s responsible for maintaining is in perfect shape and ready to fly. The nurse who holds a dying soldier’s hand as he takes his last breath, wipes away the tears, straightens her uniform and heads out to do it again.

He’s the kid in the fuel soaked coveralls who hasn’t slept in 2 days gassing up another Bradley from his fuel tanker before they roll to the final objective. The company clerk who makes sure all of the promotion orders are correct and in on time, or the instructor in basic training who ensures those he trains get his full attention and who puts his all into helping them learn important lessons that will save their lives. He’s the recruiter who’d rather be where the action is, but does what is necessary to make sure he gets the best and brightest available for his branch of service. Or the MP at the gate who shows up every day, does her job to the very best of her ability and never complains.

Most vets have never seen combat in the sense we think of it. But every single solitary one of them has contributed in vital ways to the success of our combat efforts and making this the finest military ever. Without those who support the combat troops, success would impossible. Without the wrench turners, truck drivers, fuel handlers, cooks, clerks and all those like them, the greatest military the world has ever seen is an “also ran.”

It doesn’t matter what a vet did during his or her service, it matters that he or she chose to serve and do whatever vital job they were assigned to the best of their ability. It isn’t about medals, it isn’t about glory, it isn’t about what job they did. It is about the fact that when their country called, they stood up and answered. They are all, every one of them, heroes.

To all the vets out there – Happy Veteran’s Day.

And thank you for your service

There are people like my youngest brother Devin who can pick up a musical instrament and play it, and then there are people like me that can play the radio.

These two in this video belong in the amazing category:

This takes the cake:

WASHINGTON, D.C. (TheStreet) — The Treasury Department, not the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., should be held responsible for a public relations gaffe last month in which the FDIC closed a Chicago bank just hours after it received an award from Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, according to FDIC spokesman David Barr.

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Park National Bank of Chicago received $50 million in tax credits to encourage investment in poor communities at an Oct. 30 ceremony attended by Geithner. Hours later, though, it was seized along with eight other banks around the country that formed part of a holding company called FBOP Corp. and sold to U.S. Bancorp (USB Quote).One financial services executive, who did not want to be on the record for fear of running afoul of regulators, accused the FDIC of timing the closure as it did in a deliberate effort to embarrass Geithner.

FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair has tangled with Geithner before over issues such as her approval of Wells Fargo (WFC Quote)’s acquisition of Wachovia after the failed bank had initially struck a deal with Citigroup (C Quote), according to a Bloomberg News report last year. The report said Geithner tried to push Bair out of office.

FDIC Spokesman Barr says questions over the issue should be directed to John Dugan, the Comptroller of the Currency, which is a bureau within the Treasury Department. Barr says Dugan sits on the FDIC’s board and could have warned Geithner of the impending closure, since the FDIC took bids on FBOP Bank October 20 — 10 days before the bank was closed.

Google has an application that allows you to search your neighborhood for the Swine Flu Shots.  You can find it here.

From The Street dot Com:

For months, the rumor has circulated that US Airways(symbol Quote) might merge with American(AMR Quote).

It seems off base. Throughout the airline industry’s merger cycle in 2007 and 2008, American never seemed to be seriously interested. Even as Delta(DAL Quote) and Northwest pursued a deal, American stayed on the sidelines, despite Northwest’s hub at Tokyo’s Narita Airport.”We looked very carefully at their presence in Narita,” CEO Gerard Arpey recently told the airline’s fall leadership conference. “(It) wasn’t the kind of scale we were looking for.”

American could use a Charlotte hub, too. US Airways has built Charlotte into the country’s ninth busiest airport. But would a carrier unwilling to chase Tokyo then turn around and undergo merger turmoil to acquire less valuable Charlotte?

And yet, US Airways CEO Doug Parker is a leading merger advocate, American’s situation is in flux, and last week, Continental(CAL Quote) CEO Jeff Smisek discussed the possibility of renewing merger talks with United(UAUA Quote).

A few days after Continental accepted United’s invitation to join the Star alliance, Smisek said the carrier is happy to remain independent but would reconsider if the new Delta prospers.

“We are watching Delta to see whether Delta outperforms us financially,” Smisek said, in a Bloomberg Television interview. “To date they have not done so. They’ve gotten bigger, they’ve gotten more complex, but they haven’t gotten profitable.”

Were Continental and United to merge, American, the largest carrier 13 months ago, would slide to third. Meanwhile, American is threatened by regulators’ reluctance to give it and partner British Airways the same antitrust immunity that competitors have, and by Delta’s bid to replace it as a partner to Japan Air Lines.

From Mish:

In what is described as the modern day equivalent of selling apples during the great depression, U.S. citizens are joining immigrants in store parking lots competing for a few hours of day labor at places like Home Depot.

Inquiring minds are reading about The new faces of day labor.

In the latest sign of the Las Vegas Valley’s economic free fall, U.S. citizens are starting to show up in the early mornings outside home improvement stores and plant nurseries across the Las Vegas Valley, jostling with illegal immigrants for a shot at a few hours of work.

Experts say the slow-starting but seemingly inexorable trend is occurring nationwide.

“It’s the equivalent of selling apples in the Great Depression,” said Harley Shaiken, chairman of the Center for Latin American studies at the University of California, Berkeley.

Pablo Alvarado, executive director of the Los Angeles-based National Day Laborer Organizing Network, said he has been seeing the same thing elsewhere.

“It’s happening, though still not in massive numbers,” Alvarado said. In the past six months or so, he has heard of “americanos” on the street corners and parking lots of Silver Spring, Md., Long Island, N.Y., and Southern California locations.

“It’s just beginning,” he said. “But I think it’s only going to increase.”

At Home Depot on Decatur Boulevard north of Tropicana Avenue, Jose said the same thing, adding that “it’s never more than three or four, but they’re coming out.”

Farther south, in front of Moon Valley Nursery on Eastern Avenue, Israel said a couple of “americanos” — white and black, he added — have come out for work in recent months. “But they tend to stay only a few days.”

As a salesman at Moon Valley, Mike Fugitt’s job includes making sure the laborers don’t come into the nursery’s parking lot, because their presence draws complaints from some customers. In the past three months or so, he said, more of those laborers have been telling him, “But I’m an American.” That includes some Hispanics, he added. “But I treat them all the same; they can’t be trespassing,” he said.

Workers at all the sites said the presence of the americanos hasn’t made work scarcer or produced any conflict. Some suggested that people hiring day laborers prefer Hispanics anyway, because of their reputation as hard workers.

Shaiken said shaking up the mix at day labor sites may eventually produce conflict in the greater society. “It essentially shreds the argument that Americans don’t want certain jobs,” he said.

In the current economy, he added, “we’re almost sure to see die-hard opponents of illegal immigrants seize on the fact that we have legal workers in day labor markets,” heating an already-inflamed debate.

At the same time, Shaiken said, the issue won’t become central to the debate before Congress over what is known as comprehensive reform, including a pathway for legalizing millions of workers. “The point is, do we really want a labor market with day labor work as a career path?

Antonio Bernabe, day labor organizer for the Coalition for Humane Immigrant Rights of Los Angeles, said the appearance of more and more U.S. citizens seeking day labor work on corners and in parking lots poses new challenges for organizations such as his. In recent months, he said, he has found himself explaining to a whole new group the legal rights of workers, as well as approaching local authorities to discuss the entry of new people into what he called “the world of day labor.” That group includes blacks and Asians, he said.

Another difference is that now he’s giving those explanations to laborers in English.

From the Keller Citizen:

Keller 48, Fossil Ridge 28

The Keller football team advanced to the playoffs with a 20-point victory over Fossil Ridge on Friday night in a winner-take-all-style game.

Whichever team won tonight’s game would move on, and Keller proved to be the better team.

Indians receiver Chris Soihl finished the game with 149 yards receiving and a touchdown, and Kelo Webster rushed for 181 yards and a touchdown for Keller.

Ryan Pyles provided a spark for Ridge taking over in the second half, passing for 306 yards and two touchdowns to keep it close for the Panthers.

Randy Leake will be along shortly to let us know game time and place for this week’s game.